The Fourth Turning (Review)

One of the most important books I’ve ever read and I highly recommend it.

The Fourth Turning is written by William Strauss and Neil Howe.

The premise goes like this:
A ‘saeculum’ is roughly an 80-100 year timeframe that repeats itself.
There are 4 turnings within each saeculum, roughly 20-25 years each, or about a generation in length.
There are 4 archetypes that define the general mood of each generation.

Because of our parents archetype, and our age when a major crisis hits (such as WWII), our generation has a general mood.  Our mood then defines how we handle conflict, politics and raising kids.  This creates a general mood for the following generation.  The interaction of older and younger generations shapes the world, but it happens cyclically.  Progress is not linear, and he shows how this has occurred over many many centuries, and goes into great detail for the current saeculum.  We are currently in the 4th turning,when a crisis will hit.

The 4 archetypes are Prophets, Nomads, Heroes, Artists.

The First Turning:  High.  1946-1964.
Families: Strong.  Child Nurture: Loosening.  Institutions: Reinforced.  Social Priority: Maximum Community.  Wars:  Restorative
Elderhood: Nomad: Tough
Midlife: Hero: Energetic to Hubristic
Young Adulthood: Artist: Improving.
Childhood: Prophet:  Spirited.

The Second Turning:  Awakening.  1964-1984
Families: Weakening.  Child Nurture: Underprotective.  Institutions: Attacked.  Social Priority: Rising Individualism.  Wars:  Controversial
Elderhood: Hero: Powerful
Midlife: Artist: Conformist to Experimental.
Young Adulthood: Prophet: Reflecting
Childhood: Nomad: Bad.

The Third Turning: The Unraveling. 1984-~2005
Families: Weak.  Child Nurture: Tightening.  Institutions: Eroded.  Social Priority: Maximum Individualism.  Wars:  Inconclusive
Elderhood: Artist: Sensitive
Midlife: Prophet: Detached to Judgmental.
Young Adulthood: Nomad: Competing
Childhood: Hero:  Good.

The Fourth Turning: Crisis. ~2005-2025
Families: Strengthening.  Child Nurture: Overprotective.  Institutions: Founded.  Social Priority: Rising Community.  Wars:  Total
Elderhood: Prophet: Wise
Midlife: Nomad: Frenetic to Exhausted.
Young Adulthood: Hero: Building.
Childhood: Artist:  Placid.

The last one is worth going into (but you should just read the book).  Note that wars are total.  The goal of the generation who is in power, since they have never seen a massive conflict first hand, is to obliterate the enemy.  Not just fight them, to obliterate them.  Conflicts become sufficiently large that the mood of the entire nation is shifted.  It affects everybody.  A High turning will ensue, but that does not mean that the country comes out on top or prospers such as what happened in the 50′s.  It only means that people avoid conflict and community building is a priority.

You’ll be left scared, yet relieved to know the pendulum will swing in the other direction.  You’ll be left looking at your parents and grandparents and children differently.

Quotes:
“In the carousel of progress, the progress remained fixed while the carousel was the audience.”
“Art for art’s sake is a philosophy of the well fed.” Cao Yu
“What makes a crisis special is the public’s willingness to let leaders lead even when they falter and to let authorities be authoritative even when they make mistakes.”  p.258
“The difficult we do at once.  The impossible will take a little longer.”  Seabees Family 1930′s

Go read it.